War Winning

In February 2000, the NDU QDR 01 Working Group concluded an in-depth background study of the future security environment. In comparing and analyzing over thirty significant future estimates, forecasts, and scenarios, there became apparent a general consensus among prominent civil-military thought on the character of the future. It is postulated that during the next 25 years, the United States will be challenged by a regional competitor or rogue state who will use anti-access and area denial strategies. US military operations overseas will be conducted in urban terrain and under increasingly "chaotic" conditions, while back in the continental United States we can expect attempts to attack our homeland by asymmetric means. Advanced military technology will become more diffuse, allowing significant tactical intelligence to become more commercially available. Large-scale land combat is likely to include the use of weapons of mass destruction, and control of the air and seas will be challenged. Space will become increasingly more vulnerable and not proprietary to the United States, while information warfare will rise to become a significant tool of war, shattering traditional definitions of targets and effects. As we prepare for the future, we foresee the need to hedge against an eventual military near-peer competitor, as well as against potential alliances by regional competitors. It is also possible a collapse of a key ally or regional support could occur, bringing about our inevitable involvement.