Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis in Archaeological Computational Modeling

This volume deals with the pressing issue of uncertainty in§archaeological modeling. Detecting where and when uncertainty is introduced to§the modeling process is critical, as are strategies for minimizing,§reconciling, or accommodating such uncertainty.§§Each contribution provides a unique perspective on§uncertainty in archaeological modeling, ranging in both theoretical and§methodological orientation. The strengths and weaknesses of various§identification and mitigation techniques are discussed, in particular§sensitivity analysis. The cases demonstrate that for archaeological modeling§purposes, there is no quick fix for uncertainty; indeed, each archaeological§model requires intensive consideration of uncertainty and specific applications§for calibration and validation.§§As very few such techniques have been problematized in a§systematic manner or published in the archaeological literature, this volume§will serve to provide guidance and direction to other modelers in the field by§distilling some basic principles for model testing derived from insight§gathered in the case studies below. Additionally, model applications and their attendant§uncertainties are presented from distinct spatio-temporal contexts and will§appeal to a broad range of archaeological modelers.§§This volume will also be of interest to non-modeling§archaeologists, as consideration of uncertainty when interpreting the§archaeological record is also a vital concern for the development of non-formal§(or implicit) models of human behavior in the past.